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November 05, 2008
A first look at the exit polls
Posted by: Chris
CNN has posted the exit polls with an extraordinary degree of detail. For lots of reasons, exit polling of GLB voters can be suspect, especially on a nationwide scale, but these numbers suggest about the same split between Barack Obama and John McCain as there was four years ago between Democrat John Kerry and Republican incumbent George W. Bush.
Here are some nuggets I found during my initial look-see:
Presidential race:
- Openly GLB voters (4% of all voters): Obama (70%). McCain (27%).
- Straight voters (96% of all voters): Obama (53%). McCain (45%).
Calif. Prop 8 (overturning state supreme court's gay marriage ruling):
Overall: Yes (50%). No (50%).- Obama voters (61% overall): Yes (32%). No (68%).
- McCain voters (36% overall): Yes (82%). No (18%).
- Male voters (46% of all voters) Yes (51%). No (49%).
- Female voters (54% of all voters) Yes (50%). No (50%).
- White (63% overall): Yes (47%). No (53%)
- African-American (10% overall): Yes (70%). No (30%).
- Latino (19% overall): Yes (51%). No (49%).
- Asian (6% overall): Yes (47%). No (53%).
- Age 18-29 (20% overall): Yes (37%). No (63%).
- Age 30-44 (28% overall): Yes (53%). No (47%).
- Age 45-64 (36% overall): Yes (53%). No (47%).
- Age 65 and older (16% overall): Yes (59%). No (41%).
- Democrats (43% overall): Yes (35%). No. (65%).
- Republicans (28% overall): Yes (81%). No (19%).
- Independent (29% overall): Yes (44%). No (56%).
- Married (62% overall): Yes (59%). No (41%).
- Unmarried (38% overall): Yes (36%). No (64%).
- Children under 18 (40 % overall): Yes (63%). No (37%).
- No children under 18 (60% overall): Yes (42%). No (58%).
- Clinton Democrats (16% overall): Yes (37%). No (63%).
- Obama Democrats (23% overall): Yes (31%). No (69%).
- Straight voters (95% overall): Yes (52%). No (48%).
Arkansas Initiative 1 (ban on unmarried/gay couples as foster/adoptive parents):
- Male voters (45% overall): Yes (61%). No (39%).
- Female voters (55% overall): Yes (54%). No (46%).
- Obama voters (38% overall): Yes (45%). No (55%).
- McCain voters (58% overall): Yes (66%). No (34%).
- Age 18-29 (17% overall): Yes (46%). No (54%).
- Age 30-44 (27% overall): Yes (57%). No (43%).
- Age 45-64 (38% overall): Yes (58%). No (42%).
- Age 65 and older (19% overall): Yes (64%). No (36%).
- Democrats (36% overall): Yes (48%). No (52%).
- Republicans (32% overall): Yes (67%). No (33%).
- Independents (32% overall): Yes (57%). No (43%).
- White evangelical/born again (55% overall): Yes (64%). No (36%).
- Other than white evangelical/born again (45% overall): Yes (48%). No (52%).
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Comments
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I just saw that San Francisco had pretty low voter turn out compared to many other parts of the state. Less than 50 percent. Of course many of the more conservative counties (though less populated) had above 70 percent. Did people in SF take an Obama win for granted. Living here, I had a feeling that people took prop 8 for granted a little bit as well. Bay Area in general could have had a stronger showing.
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The NY Times says that 3 million absentee and provisional ballots in CA still need to be counted. Does anyone think that prop 8 could still turn around from these votes?
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The actual vote on Proposition 8 was Yes 52% to No 48%.
* * *
Update on exit poll: Straight voters (95% overall): Yes (54%). No (46%).
The margin of victory on the marriage amendment is 2% (i.e. 50% to reject - 48% against = 2% margin).
* * *
According to the exit poll, 5% of voters in California were GLB and 95% were non-GLB.
This indicates that of all the votes cast on the marriage amendment, 44% were No votes cast by Straight voters. That leaves the GLB votes to be accounted.
The sample of GLB is small, however, the poll results suggest that of all the votes cast, 1% were Yes votes from GLB and 4% were No votes cast by GLB. The GLB voters split 1 Yes for every 4 No.
The upshot is that GLB voters supplied about one-half of the margin of victory for the Yes side.
* * *
Also, according to the exit poll, 16% of Proposition 8 voters were nonreligious and 84% were religious.
Of all the votes cast on the amendment, 50% were by religious voters who voted Yes and 2% by nonreligious voters who voted Yes for a total of 52% of the overall votes.
The upshot here is that if the nonreligous voters denied the No side the 2% that would have defeated the marriage amendment.
* * *
Exit polls have their flaws, some of which are insurmountable, however, when considering where the votes could have been found to defeat Proposition 8, it looks like a good place to start would be the GLB voters and the nonreligious voters. At least, if the No side's argument about GLB rights -- and about secular versus religious marriage -- are to be taken to be believed.
Instead of complaining about black voters and Mormons and religious people, perhaps the Gay Marriage protestors could look to GLB voters and nonreligous voters -- those assumed natural No votes.
The comments to this entry are closed.
Double T on Nov 5, 2008 5:43:19 AM:
I wish Pres. Elect Obama the very best of luck.
I'm still amazed at the Hillary supporter who after the results came in were sending out emails about "other" important things to talk about. Not one congrats.
A really bitter bunch of people. Very sad.