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July 12, 2009
UPDATE: President Palin (not an obituary)
Posted by: Andoni
Anyone who read my original post should check out New York Times columnist Frank Rich's take on Palin today. It's worth a read.
He makes the following points:
1. the Palin phenomenon is largely emotional, not rational
2. almost 75% of Republicans say they would vote for her for president
3. this gives her a really good shot at the Republican nomination in 2012 if she wants it
3. Americans have very short memories
4. she could track Nixon's comeback after supposed death
5. it was Democratic divisions and failures that gave Nixon that opening
Palin is not dead politically. As I said in my post, only two things need to happen for her to become president: A.) she gets the nomination and B.) Obama is perceived as a failed president.
A.) doesn't seem like a problem for her. And B.) ....... we don't know yet, but I would bet that everything rides on the economy. Since Obama isn't a world renowned economist on his own, that puts him in the position of only being as good as the people around him who advise him, and right now, I'm not sure he is getting the best advise. Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman agrees.
So whether you support health care reform, gay rights, global warming, energy independence, banking reform, immigration reform or some other interest, the long term success of all of these, depend on the economy improving starting very soon, then significantly before 2010 and greatly before 2012.
The public will not support all these great plans unless they start seeing improvement on the horizon. And if he convinces us that improvement is on the horizon, and it doesn't come, then he (and those who support these programs) are in serious trouble.
A large majority of the bloggers who are joyously dancing at the supposed end of Sarah Palin's political career were not even born in 1962 when Nixon supposedly fell. I was in high school and remember it clearly ....and how it felt. The overall Sarah Palin picture feels the same way that the Nixon exit felt. And that's scary.
I'm not going to lose sleep over the thought of President Palin for the time being, but I want everyone to know that it is more possible than you currently think it is.
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Comments
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This country elected G.W. Bush, not once, but twice. Anything is possible including a Palin Presidency.
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So whether you support health care reform, gay rights, global warming, energy independence, banking reform, immigration reform or some other interest, the long term success of all of these, depend on the economy improving starting very soon, then significantly before 2010 and greatly before 2012.
Except I strongly oppose Dem desires on all of these items, except regarding gay rights. If gay rights weren't part of this equation and if the Republicans weren't as incompetent buffoons as the Democrats, I'd support someone like Palin against Obama because frankly she couldn't do any worse.Having said this, I still think at this point that only a depression will keep Obama from being re-elected in 2012. Congress is another matter entirely...
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Palin couldn't hang on as governor of Alaska. She will never win the presidency for this reason. Liberal pundits will immediately point it out and harp on it. She deserves to serve in a different capacity, such as in the Senate, where her fame would garner her instant influence, or in the GOP national committee, where she could easily rise to the top. She could truly help our country in a different capacity if she looks in a direction different than the presidency.
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Now lest we say NOTHING is impossible --- I would have to say the prospect of a Palin presidency beggars my imagination. More to the point - only about 30% of the population now self-identifies as Republican. Basically the only people left in the party are the bat-crap crazy fringe, composed of the birthers and the religious nut cases. Based on that demographic, I can see how Palin could get the nomination. And if that happens, that's it for the GOP. It will go the way of the Whigs.
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Go Patrick Murphey. I got me a straight hero now. you're pretty hot for a straight guy and you have the balls to back up your mission. A straight guy from West Point on my side? Things just keep getting better.
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I am somewhat a little surprised that nothing major has happened yet on this issue, especially since it is a domestic question and not an International one. It is part of one of Mr. Obama's leading electoral promises and he has been in office for over 100 days now.
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The comments to this entry are closed.
Jake Spencer on Jul 12, 2009 9:13:06 AM:
Rich's column is excellent, as they usually are. And your comments are realistic. It is critically important that Obama and his team make sure the stimulus money creates jobs -- a lot of them. The banking industry is a black hole, and they continue to freeze credit. Buy a toaster, get a bank.